Comments on: The Global Recession: What Stimulus Is Needed for Recovery? http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/the-global-recession-what-stimulus-is-needed-for-recovery/ Economics, Global Finance, Investment Strategies and Development. Thu, 19 Jan 2012 02:36:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Chris Nagi http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/the-global-recession-what-stimulus-is-needed-for-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-19 Chris Nagi Fri, 06 Mar 2009 18:06:59 +0000 http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/?p=124#comment-19 My Bloomberg terminal has a handy function for world market capitalization that puts the global equity loss closer to $36 trillion since October 2007. It accounts for every stock on a public exchange. My Bloomberg terminal has a handy function for world market capitalization that puts the global equity loss closer to $36 trillion since October 2007. It accounts for every stock on a public exchange.

]]> By: Carlos Vittone http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/the-global-recession-what-stimulus-is-needed-for-recovery/comment-page-1/#comment-18 Carlos Vittone Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:43:09 +0000 http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/?p=124#comment-18 The bubble of CDS, other derivatives (oil,gold, currencies), Yen Carry trade, General debt (including morgages) ABOVE "NORMAL" AVERAGES IN PERIOD l995 to 2004, in "notional" amounts, should be around 100 Trillion (world) If losses already total 43 Trillion (real estate values, stock capitalizations,etc), and we can estimate that the Carry Trade has already deleveraged (YEN is nearing its "normal" 100 rate), estimating also that leveraged exposure has been written off as loss in a least 50%, equivalent to 5 Trillion of actual value loss, then my perception is that delevarage is completed. Harm to banks balance sheets should by now be repaired (as is in fact occurring)and all we must wait is for GWProduct to pick up steam. THIS IS THE DIFFICULT AND LENGTHY PART. And we must expect (3 to 6 months) more shocks as Asia and L.America join in into the recession awareness (sort of an advancing tsunami) How long does man need to stop denying loss, finish mourning and start again?Make it 6 months. We should see "advanced indicators" (S/P 500 ?) improving after the summer (northern hemisphere). ONE VERY good news is the Obama administration. Just by cutting back defense expenses the US has an enormous base for healing public accounts.. In short. There will be pain but we shall survive. Only question: How strong the recovery and when? My opinion: It will be slow, crescendo, starting late in 2009, and finalizing the process in late 2011. "2012 will be a good year for survivors cashing in on the good work. By 2013 again new cycle.... The bubble of CDS, other derivatives (oil,gold, currencies), Yen Carry trade, General debt (including morgages) ABOVE “NORMAL” AVERAGES IN PERIOD l995 to 2004, in “notional” amounts, should be around 100 Trillion (world)

If losses already total 43 Trillion (real estate values, stock capitalizations,etc), and we can estimate that the Carry Trade has already deleveraged (YEN is nearing its “normal” 100 rate), estimating also that leveraged exposure has been written off as loss in a least 50%, equivalent to 5 Trillion of actual value loss, then my perception is that delevarage is completed.

Harm to banks balance sheets should by now be repaired (as is in fact occurring)and all we must wait is for GWProduct to pick up steam.

THIS IS THE DIFFICULT AND LENGTHY PART. And we must expect (3 to 6 months) more shocks as Asia and L.America join in into the recession awareness (sort of an advancing tsunami)

How long does man need to stop denying loss, finish mourning and start again?Make it 6 months. We should see “advanced indicators” (S/P 500 ?) improving after the summer (northern hemisphere).

ONE VERY good news is the Obama administration. Just by cutting back defense expenses the US has an enormous base for healing public accounts..
In short. There will be pain but we shall survive. Only question: How strong the recovery and when? My opinion: It will be slow, crescendo, starting late in 2009, and finalizing the process in late 2011. “2012 will be a good year for survivors cashing in on the good work. By 2013 again new cycle….

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