Ted Williams – The Greatest Baseball Hitter Ever?

Introduction

One frequently hears “if Williams did not have to take time off for military duty, he would have been the greatest hitter of all time”.  Here, I address this point by projecting what Williams would have batted if not for the wars. Specifically, I project: home runs (HR), batting average (BA), runs batted in (RBI), on base percentage (OBP), and slugging average (SLG). Williams is also compared to other “best hitter ever” contenders.

Simulating the Lost Years

Ted Williams lost 6 years to military service in the prime of his career. For WWII, 4 years – 1942-1945; for the Korean War, he effectively lost 1952 and 1953. Williams had just hit .406 and .356 in 1941 and 1942, respectively, before his WWII military service. He also hit .388 at age 39 in 1957 after returning from the Korean War. Clearly, his military service took him away in the prime of his baseball career.

To make the projections for the lost years, I took the average of the two years before he went off to war. The results for the statistics are given in the following table. The years used for the projections are underlined with the projections in bold.[1]

Table 1. – Williams Career and Projections

Year	Games	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
1939	149	31	145	0.327	0.436	0.609
1940	144	23	113	0.344	0.442	0.594
1941	143	37	120	0.406	0.553	0.735
1942	150	36	137	0.356	0.499	0.648
1943		36.5	128.5	0.381	0.526	0.692
1944		36.5	128.5	0.381	0.526	0.692
1945		36.5	128.5	0.381	0.526	0.692
1946		36.5	128.5	0.381	0.526	0.692
1946	150	38	123	0.342	0.497	0.667
1947	156	32	114	0.343	0.499	0.634
1948	137	25	127	0.369	0.497	0.615
1949	155	43	159	0.343	0.490	0.650
1950	89	28	97	0.317	0.452	0.647
1951	148	30	126	0.318	0.464	0.556
1952	6	29	111.5	0.318	0.500	0.602
1953	37	29	111.5	0.318	0.509	0.602
1954	117	29	89	0.345	0.513	0.635
1955	98	28	83	0.356	0.496	0.703
1956	136	24	82	0.345	0.479	0.605
1957	132	38	87	0.388	0.526	0.731
1958	129	26	85	0.328	0.458	0.584
1959	103	10	43	0.254	0.372	0.419
1960	113	29	72	0.316	0.451	0.645
Career	2,292	521	1,839	0.344	0.482	0.634
Projection		711	2,539	0.346	0.489	0.637

Source: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=willite01

Home Runs

Before getting to the home runs stats, it is worth noting that the home run numbers changed dramatically by era. This is captured in Table 2 where American League home runs are shown for the “Ruth”, “Williams”, and “Steroid” eras.

Table 2. – American League Homers in Different Eras

	Ruth	Williams	Steroid
Era	1914-1935	1939-1960	1992-2008
Per Year	433	806	2,377
Per Game	0.355	0.655	1.075

Note how dramatically the numbers of home runs hit has increased through the eras.

Home run leaders are presented in Table 3. Williams tied for 19^th. My projections suggest that had he played the years spent in military service, he would have hit 711 home runs and ranked 4^th.

Table 3. – Home Runs

Rank	Player	HR
1	Barry Bonds	762
2	Hank Aaron	755
3	Babe Ruth	714
	Ted Williams (proj)	711
4	Willie Mays	660
5	Ken Griffey	630
6	Sammy Sosa	609
7	Alex Rodriguez	604
8	Frank Robinson	586
9	Mark McGwire	583
10	Jim Thome	581
19 (tie)	Ted Williams (act.)	521

Keep in mind that Fenway Park is not friendly to left hand hitters. While it is only 302 feet down the right field line, it drops back sharply to 380 feet in right center. Table 4 provides data on more friendly American League parks in use when Williams played.

Table 4. – Park Dimensions

Park	Right Field Line	Right Center
Fenway	302	380
Briggs Stadium	325	370
Seattle Kingdome	312	340
Yankee Stadium	296	344

Source: Clem’s Baseball Blog

Batting Average

Before getting to the stats, it is useful to ask whether different eras were better or worse for batters. Table 5 provides data on average batting averages for the best AL hitter and the average for Major League Baseball. The average for the AL champ was very high for the earliest two periods. The Ruth era had a high overall average, suggesting that Ruth’s averages might have been high because of bad pitching. But the Williams era was not abnormally high or low, suggesting Williams did not get a batting performance break because of when he played.

Table 5. Batting Averages in Different Eras

	Ruth	Williams	Steroid
Era	1914-1935	1939-1960	1992-2008
AL Champ	0.382	0.348	0.351
MLB Team	0.275	0.260	0.266

Data on batting averages are presented in Table 6. Williams’ actual average of .344 tied for 7^th. My projection suggests he would have ranked 4^th had he played in his service years. Table 4 indicates that the 6 players with higher averages played during a high-average era.

Table 6. – Batting Averages

Rank	Player	Years	BA
1	Ty Cobb	1905-1928	.366
2	Rogers Hornsby	1915-1937	.358
3	Joe Jackson	1908-1920	.356
	Ted Williams (proj)	1939-1960	.346
4	Ed Delahanty	1888-1903	.346
5	Tris Speaker	1907-1928	.345
6	Billy Hamilton	1888-1901	.344
7	Ted Williams (act.)	1939-1960	.344
8	Dan Brouthers	1879-1904	.342
9	Harry Heilmann	1914-1932	.342
10	Babe Ruth	1914-1935	.342

Runs Batted In

Like home runs, RBIs are cumulative, so my projections for Williams will be much higher than his actuals. Table 7 provides data on RBIs. Williams ranked 13^th but I project he would have been 1^st had he not gone to war.

Table 7. – Runs Batted In

Rank	Player	RBI
	Ted Williams (proj)	2,539
1	Hank Aaron	2,297
2	Babe Ruth	2,213
3	Barry Bonds	1,996
4	Lou Gehrig	1,995
5	Stan Musial	1,951
6	Ty Cobb	1,937
7	Jimmie Foxx	1,922
8	Eddie Murray	1,917
9	Willie Mays	1,903
10	Cap Anson	1,879
13	Ted Williams (act.)	1,839

On Base Percentage

OBP is increasing accepted as the best single statistic on batters. Getting on base half the times you come to the plate is amazing. At .489 (proj.), Williams is pretty close. Like other dangerous hitters, Williams was given many intentional passes. But he was also a very disciplined hitter with a great eye. He prided himself on never swinging at a pitch not in the strike zone. Williams has the highest on base percentage of any hitter, ever.

Table 8. – On Base Percentage

Rank	Name	OBP
	Ted Williams (proj)	0.489
1	Ted Williams (act)	0.482
2	Babe Ruth	0.474
3	John McGraw	0.465
4	Billy Hamilton	0.455
5	Lou Gehrig	0.447
6	Barry Bonds	0.444
7	Rogers Hornsby	0.434
8	Ty Cobb	0.433
9	Jimmie Foxx	0.428
10	Tris Speaker	0.428

Slugging Percentage

Slugging average is a common batting statistic. It is defined as the total number of bases resulting from your hits divided by your at bats. The maximum is 4.000, e.g., if you hit a home run in your only at bat, you will have a 4.000 slugging percentage. Williams’ slugging average was second only to Babe Ruth’s.

Table 9. – Slugging Percentage

Rank	Name	SLG
1	Babe Ruth	0.690
	Ted Williams (proj)	0.637
2	Ted Williams (act.)	0.634
3	Lou Gehrig	0.632
4	Albert Pujols	0.628
5	Jimmie Foxx	0.609
6	Barry Bonds	0.607
7	Hank Greenberg	0.605
8	Manny Ramirez	0.591
9	Mark McGwire	0.588
10	Joe DiMaggio	0.579

Overall

Who are the contenders for greatest hitter of all time? Among retired players, there are only two worthy of consideration – Ruth and Williams (Aaron’s lifetime batting average was only .305 and Bonds only .298).

How about people still playing? Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez come to mind. Rodriguez is 35, maybe 2 good years left. But his overall batting average is only .303. End of discussion. Pujols is 30, maybe 7 good years left. In Table 10, I project Pujols ahead for 7 years using annual career averages for the projection. The winner in each category is in bold.

Table 10. – Ruth, Williams, and Pujols Comparisons

Player	HR	AVE	RBI	OBP	SLG
Ruth	714	.342	2,213	.474	.690
Williams (proj)	711	.346	2,539	.489	.637
Pujols (pro)	687	.333	2,055	.427	.628
Williams	521	.344	1,839	.482	.634
Pujols	404	.333	1,209	.427	.628

Williams was the winner in four categories, Ruth in 2. Ruth might have been helped on batting average because of the weak pitching in his era. My sense? Ruth or Williams is the greatest hitter ever.

Reflections

My father took me to Fenway in the late ‘forties/early ‘fifties when Williams was in his prime. He was the most exciting player I ever saw in person. I will always remember the announcement – Now Batting, Number 9, Ted Williams. Whatever the game, a significant number would stand and cheer. Williams would come to the plate, often say something to the ump and catcher, and then the performance would start. Anyone fortunate enough to see him hit a home run or even swing at a pitch never forgot the beauty of the swing[2]. He rarely swung at a bad pitch. Many umps believed if Williams did not swing at the pitch, it was a ball. Just before the pitch came, he would lift up/cock his wrists, and swing at the very last moment.

Williams had excellent eyesight, quick reactions, and very strong wrists. His swing was traditional and classic. He held onto the bat with both hands until the end of the swing. His signature home run was a towering drive into the right field bleachers.

Whomever you think was the greatest hitter, Ruth has to be considered the greatest ball player ever.  In Boston, he won 23 and 24 games in 1916 and 1917, respectively, as a pitcher.

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[1] All data appearing in this article come from the Baseball Almanac.

[2] You can catch a glimmer of the beauty of his swing at – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRie0HNJmZY and http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=lRie0HNJmZY&vq=small#t=42.